I warned (obviously I’m not the only one) that Trump’s
alienation of friends and undermining of Western alliances would only serve to
help China and Russia. And now this.
Trump has
been openly hostile to NATO, the WTO, the EU, the G7 – the very foundations of
the post-WWII world order that the US helped set up. Not to mention his
hostility towards NAFTA and his abandonment of the TPP and the Paris Accords.
Trump’s friendliness to Putin (and dictators in general) will only embolden
Russia’s ambitions in Crimea, Ukraine, and their interference in Western elections.
And Trump’s abandonment of the TPP set back what would have been significant progress
in reigning in China’s influence and their unscrupulous trading practices[1]
– something Trump himself has bemoaned[2].
Now China
is on a mission to portray themselves as champions of free trade and guardians
of the multilateral trading system, rather than the US:
“We must promote trade and
investment, liberalisation and facilitation through opening up – and say no to
protectionism,” President Xi Jinping at the Global Economic Forum in Davos,
Switzerland.
They have
been promoting new closeness with Japan and India (relationships that have historically
not been without strain), even formerly fierce rival in manufacturing Mexico.
And Russia is on the way towards its first free trade agreement with South
Korea.
Chinese state
media is already promoting the idea that the EU is on their side, calling China
and the EU “natural partners [who] firmly believe that free trade is a powerful
engine for global economic growth [and] should resist trade protectionism hand
in hand”. In public comments in Berlin this week, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang
and German Chancellor Angela Merkel both expressed their joint commitment to
free trade. China is even offering to open itself more to the EU in exchange
for the EU issuing a strong joint statement against Trump’s trade war. Maybe
even launch joint action against the US at the WTO.
Joint.
Between China and the EU. Against the US.
If China
wanted an ally to its claims in the South China Sea, its questionable trade
practices, its environmental standards (or lack thereof), or its positions on human
and labour rights, this would be a fantastic way about it.[3]
As Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post said:
“China has correctly been accused of
stealing U.S. companies’ tech, copyrights and other IP to get an edge in trade.
Now they’re borrowing one of our best foreign policy ideas, too: banding
together with allies to punish a cheating, trade-obstructing bully … the
strategy Trump ditched that actually could have curbed China’s bad behaviour …
China is now trying to use against us.”
And then
there is the 16-party Asian regional trade deal which would cover half the
world’s economy. And, unlike the TPP, the US has no say in these negotiations.
But Beijing does.
Trump
thinks that because the US imports more from China than China does from the US,
this gives him more scope for tariffs and more leverage. But in addition to the
non-tariff barriers China has up its sleeve (see my previous blog), the US is less than a quarter of
the global economy nowadays. And if China manages to obtain the cooperation of
Europe (the largest trading bloc on the planet!), and the rest of Asia … game
changer!
This is the
one time in decades when we really need Western allies to be united against the
rise of China and its unscrupulous behaviour, and the strategic undermining by (and
ambitions of) Russia. And our most powerful player is the Siberian Candidate
– and he didn’t even have to be brainwashed.
[1]
Think “counterfeited US luxury goods, bootlegged Hollywood films, fake Apple
stores, trade secrets pilfered from cutting edge US tech companies. It forced
US firms to hand over their technology if they wanted to operate in China.”
[2] And
no, tariffs are not a suitable alternative to the coalition of countries under
the TPP that would have been far more effective at pressuring China to behave.
Especially when it’s actually legal under WTO rules for China to retaliate
against tariffs.
[3]
Again, it really doesn’t matter that the EU has shown great reluctance towards
such an alliance. The swing in the global balance of power is now clear. All
because the US has given China an opening that never should have existed in the
first place.
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