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Saturday, 27 October 2018

The hangover.

As predicted, US soybean exports surged last quarter in an effort to beat Chinese retaliation to Trump’s trade war (artificially inflating economic growth figures), and have now plummeted 97% as a result.
Combined with the ongoing drag of Trump’s trade war and the inevitable weakening of the impact of Trump’s spending spree, the US’s current binge can’t go on much longer. The hangover is coming.

Sayonara, America!

Just as predicted, while Trump continues his trade war, the rest of the world continues to move on without him.
This time … fierce rivals China and Japan.



China, Japan Vow to Cooperate as Trump Hits Both on Trade
By Isabel Reynolds and Emi Nobuhiro
‎26‎ ‎October‎ ‎2018‎ ‎12‎:‎50‎ ‎PM‎ ‎AEDT Updated on ‎26‎ ‎October‎ ‎2018‎ ‎11‎:‎07‎ ‎PM‎ ‎AEDT
China and Japan capped a restoration of ties with agreements on everything from currency swaps to ocean rescue Friday, a thaw that comes as President Donald Trump seeks better trade terms with both nations.
Shinzo Abe became the first Japanese prime minister to pay an official visit to China in seven years, as Asia’s two largest economies sought to play down disagreements that have hindered relations for decades. They both reiterated support for free trade and called for the early conclusion of a regional trade pact with 16 Asia-Pacific nations that doesn’t include the U.S.
After Abe and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang commemorated the 40th anniversary of a peace and friendship treaty on Thursday, the two held formal talks on Friday and oversaw the signing of cooperation agreements between the two governments. Abe then met and dined with President Xi Jinping, marking a new high point for a relationship he has long sought to mend.
At that meeting, Xi said the two countries are becoming increasingly interdependent and that they should be partners rather than threats to each other, according to a Japanese official. He also said China’s Belt and Road initiative provides a platform for cooperation and that the nations will adhere to free trade and face global challenges together.
Abe was accompanied to China by foreign and trade ministers and a 500-strong business delegation. The two sides signed 50 cooperation agreements, including reviving a 200 billion yuan ($29 billion) currency-swap deal. The neighbors also agreed to discuss establishing a clearing bank for offshore yuan and cooperation between Japan’s Financial Services Agency and the China Securities
“China is willing to work together with Japan to take Sino-Japanese relations back to a normal track, maintaining stable, sustainable and healthy development and making new progress,” Li said during an appearance with Abe on Friday. Both sides believed that stable relations were important and that they should take “concrete measures” to become cooperative partners, he said.
Japan’s relations with its biggest trading partner turned hostile in 2012, when it nationalized part of a disputed East China Sea island chain, sparking sometimes violent protests and damaging business ties. Since taking office at the end of that year, Abe has consistently sought meetings with Chinese leaders, even as anger simmered over the territorial and other disputes.
Abe said he sought frank talks with Xi and Li covering North Korea and trade issues. The two sides also agreed to cooperate on search-and-rescue operations at sea, and assist each other in developing health care and elderly care services.
In a speech to a business forum on Friday, Abe harked back to Japan’s role in providing aid and private sector investment from the 1980s that helped turn China into an economic powerhouse.
“The Japanese government and companies invested and worked with the Chinese people toward modernization,” he said. “Seeing how China has developed is a source of pride for Japan as well.”
The thorniest issues between the two sides had so far received little mention. There were no immediate agreements on how to handle the territorial dispute, or the issue of gas resources around the disputed sea border between their exclusive economic zones.
“The difficult issues are going to stay,” said Akio Takahara, a professor at the University of Tokyo, adding that he expected relations to remain cordial at least until Xi visits Japan, which he is expected to do for the Group of 20 summit in Osaka next year.
“The Chinese Communist Party always has this history card against Japan in their pocket,” Takahara said. “Whenever they feel the need to take it out, I’m sure they will do that.”

What do you do when your argument can't stand on its own?


Interesting article by Catherine Rampell about how Republicans, instead of attempting to defend their policies on their own merit, are simply lying about what they want to achieve. With regard to health care for example, Republicans have long desired (and attempted) Obamacare’s destruction. But instead of trying to justify this position, they actually claim they’re trying to do the exact opposite:
“For instance, they might argue that in their ideal capitalist society, it’s not government’s job to shield Americans from the financial risks of serious health conditions. Every man (or woman) is an island, responsible for his or her own health care. If expensive illnesses befall some unlucky members of society, and they lacked the foresight or haven’t saved enough to plan for this risk on their own, then too bad. Life ain’t fair.” Catherine Rampell
But instead of doing this, Republicans still maintain that they want to do things like protect those with pre-existing conditions, despite continued efforts to the contrary.

I made essentially the same point about Trumpcare last September.
“If Republicans actually justified Trumpcare by saying that health care is not the role of government, but the responsibility of the individual, and that the risk of sickness, bankruptcy and death that comes from this is the inevitable price we should pay for our 'freedom', then I could respect it.
I wouldn't agree with it. Both socially and economically, public health care makes sense. But at least their policy narrative would be consistent with their ideology. 
But from beginning to end, Republicans have claimed that Trumpcare will provide BETTER health care to MORE people at LOWER cost, when so much evidence (including the CBO and the insurance industry itself) seems to suggest WORSE, LESS and HIGHER. 
So are they being dishonest about their ideology or ignorant about their policy?”
Catherine Rampell thinks the former.



Republicans are mischaracterizing nearly all their major policies. Why?
By Catherine Rampell
October 25 at 6:45 PM 
Republicans have mischaracterized just about every major policy on their agenda. The question is why. If they genuinely believe their policies are correct, why not defend them on the merits?
Consider the GOP tax cuts. Last year, Republicans said their bill would primarily benefit the middle class, pay for itself and raise President Trump’s taxes, among other claims.
Not one of these contentions is remotely true.
A more honest defense — and one occasionally revealed via accidentally-told-the-truth Kinsley gaffes — might have been something like: We want to let rich people keep more of their money, regardless of the cost to Uncle Sam. We want this both because we (unlike most of the public) think that’s fair, and also because our donors are demanding a return on their investment in us. Plus, maybe it’s a good thing to reduce government revenue; that gives us motivation to “starve the beast” and cut the safety net, which we think is a drag on the economy that protects people from the consequences of their poor life choices.
Likewise with family separations, a policy Trump is considering reviving.
In the spring, the administration systematically ripped immigrant children from their mothers’ breasts with no plan for tracking where they ended up or how to reunite these families. The rationale, as gaffingly revealed by White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, was that such cruelty would deter asylum seekers.
But when voters recoiled, the administration explained things differently. Officials alternately lied that the policy was designed to help children, was actually a Democratic policy or didn’t exist at all.
Lately, the biggest GOP lies involve health care — the top midterm issue for voters — and especially how Republicans would treat Americans with costly medical issues.
The public has had ample opportunity to learn where Republicans stand on protections for those with preexisting conditions. The party spent the past eight years, after all, trying to repeal the Affordable Care Act, including these particular (very popular) provisions.
And while Republicans failed to repeal Obamacare legislatively, they’ve found other means to undermine its protections.
For instance, the Trump administration has expanded the availability of junk insurance. These cheap plans look like regular insurance but actually cover little to no care, something you would notice only if you read the fine print. Such policies are not required to accept enrollees with preexisting conditions or to pay claims related to preexisting conditions — even if the preexisting illness hadn’t even been diagnosed at the time of enrollment.
These policies threaten coverage another way, too. Because they siphon young, cheap and healthy people off the Obamacare exchanges, they drive up prices on (real) insurance and thereby put coverage further out of reach for people who are sicker and older.
On Monday, the administration issued new regulatory guidance that will effectively allow states to nudge more people into these junk plans. And that’s just one of many measures the administration has taken that will destabilize the individual marketplaces and jack up unsubsidized premiums for people with preexisting conditions.
There’s clearly appetite among state-level Republicans to roll back such protections, too.
In fact, 20 red states have sued the federal government, arguing that Obamacare, including its preexisting-condition protections, is unconstitutional. Administrations are supposed to defend laws passed by Congress, but on these provisions, the Trump administration has refused.
And yet, Trump continues to argue that “Republicans will totally protect people with Pre-Existing Conditions, Democrats will not!”
When Trump made this claim at a rally in Wisconsin, he was echoed by Gov. Scott Walker (R), who urged the crowd: “Don’t believe the lies. We will cover people with preexisting conditions.”
This despite the fact that Walker authorized his own attorney general to join that 20-state lawsuit. But Walker is far from alone. Across the country, Republican politicians shamelessly conceal their track record on this issue.
Once again, rather than misrepresenting their own positions, Republicans could try to defend them on the merits.
For instance, they might argue that in their ideal capitalist society, it’s not government’s job to shield Americans from the financial risks of serious health conditions. Every man (or woman) is an island, responsible for his or her own health care. If expensive illnesses befall some unlucky members of society, and they lacked the foresight or haven’t saved enough to plan for this risk on their own, then too bad. Life ain’t fair.
You might wonder if maybe Republican politicians are mischaracterizing so many of their own positions because they don’t fully understand them. But given that Republican leaders have occasionally blurted out their true motives — on taxes, immigration and, yes, even health care — this explanation seems a little too charitable.
Republican politicians aren’t too dumb to know what their policies do. But clearly they think the rest of us are.