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Sunday 17 September 2017

The Thucydides Trap

In the last 500 years, a rising global power has threatened the position of the existing ruling power 16 times – 12 of these times ended in war. This is known as the “Thucydides Trap”. And guess which country has been involved in the most of these wars between rising and ruling powers – France!

But today, the rising/ ruling powers are China and the US, with China having already overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy. How easily could events in Taiwan, the South China Sea, North Korea, or just some more careless comments about trade, currency manipulation or debt obligations trigger a war between these two? Especially when you consider the leader of at least one of these powers.

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