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Tuesday 24 July 2018

It's high school economics, stupid!

Aww, poor baby Trump. You’re upset interest rates and the US dollar are rising, which will also ironically worsen the trade deficit you have been bemoaning. If only someone could have warned you this would happen. Oh wait ... a high school economics student could have told you it would happen.
If your policies do what you want, higher interest rates, a higher US dollar and a worse trade deficit are EXACTLY what we could have told you would happen:
·         Any short term stimulus from your income and corporate tax cuts, in an economy already near full employment, will drive household and corporate expenditure, thereby pushing up inflation and increasing pressure on the Fed to increase interest rates. It’ll also push up the US dollar;
·         Income tax cuts will also drive import demand, thereby worsening the trade deficit;
·         Corporate tax cuts will also drive foreign investment, thereby driving up the US dollar, hurting exports and worsening the trade deficit again; and
·         Your trade war, to the extent it hurts the EU and China more than it hurts the US, will drive up the US dollar relative to the Euro and the Yuan, hurting exports and worsening the trade deficit AGAIN.
And this is ignoring the long term disaster your tax cuts will be for the budget and income inequality.
So many people could have told you this would happen. And so many people did!
By your own design, you literally brought this on yourself. Or ... you’re literally admitting your policies didn’t work.
And if you’re thinking of interfering in Fed policy ... think harder! You think the stock market and the business community is upset with your trade interference? Try upsetting the centre of the financial sector and arguably the most powerful institution on the planet.
Seriously, I dare you. I double dare you!

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