More trains might not be enough for Melbourne's western suburbs.

Rapid population growth in Melton

Population growth in the Ballarat corridor has been strong since the turn of the century, driven by the City of Melton. Since 2001, the City has averaged an additional 6,025 people each year, or an additional 29,106 between 2011 and 2016. And even as its (percentage) rate of growth declines, this is still expected to exceed 10,000 per year beyond 2025-26, or an additional 52,444 people between 2026 and 2031.

The City of Melton overtook the City of Ballarat’s population in 2008, and by 2031, it is expected to exceed a quarter of a million – over twice that of Ballarat.

Annual Population Growth, Municipalities of Moorabool, Melton and Ballarat, 2001-31
Source: ABS, 2018; Department of Planning, 2018

This means a lot more commuters

This kind of growth is to be expected in an area that enjoys a sub-40 minute train commute to the CBD, and the most affordable housing in Greater Melbourne. But it will also inevitably put pressure on local infrastructure, including the Ballarat train line.

Combining the municipalities of Melton, Moorabool and Ballarat, their population growth just in the five years from 2011-16 has resulted in almost 12,000 extra commuters along the Ballarat corridor – almost 10,000 from Melton alone, and mostly going to the Brimbank, Melbourne and Wyndham municipalities. Melbourne is unsurprising – it’s the CBD. But Brimbank and Wyndham also provide many health care, retail, transport and manufacturing jobs to explain these commuters.

Additional Commuters from Ballarat, Moorabool and Melton along the Ballarat corridor, 2011-16
Source: ABS, 2018

How many of these additional commuters use the train?

Well, of these 11,949 additional commuters, 2,213 take the train each day, 80% from Melton and almost 80% of whom go all the way to the Melbourne municipality. This dominance of the Melbourne municipality no doubt reflects the need for private transport to avoid too many connections/transfers for those working in municipalities like Brimbank and Wyndham.

Additional Train Commuters from Ballarat, Moorabool and Melton along the Ballarat corridor, 2011-16
Source: ABS, 2018

This means that:

·         19% of additional commuters in this corridor over the last 5 years use the train;

·         Bringing the percentage for the entire corridor’s commuter population to 13%;

·         Up from 11% in 2011.

So while the average rate of train commuting in this corridor is only a little above that of Metropolitan Melbourne residents more generally (12%), new residents to this corridor are much more inclined to use the train (19%).

This adds further to the existing pressure on the train network

And this is still lower than for new arrivals to Metropolitan Melbourne (26%), yet has already put enormous pressure on the Ballarat train line. Delays, cancellations, faults and staff shortages are common. Duplication of the line from Deer Park to Melton is currently underway (with eventual quadruplication on the cards). Additional services and ongoing investments have been promised by the Victorian Government. Ballarat may even get a train link to Tullamarine Airport if the route from Sunshine gets underway. And there are calls from local Councils for the State to electrify the line to Melton also, to allow metro trains (not just V-line trains) to travel.

But there is limited potential capacity for the public transport network as a whole, and only so much higher-density transit-oriented developments that network can handle. Given the population growth in the City of Melton alone is expected to jump from almost 30,000 every five years to over 50,000, along with the increasing popularity of train commuting across Metropolitan Melbourne, a major obstacle isn’t just increasing capacity on the Ballarat line. Capacity needs to rapidly improve around the City Loop. Otherwise all these additional outer metropolitan services will create a bottleneck, worsening existing strains on existing CBD stations.

The Metro Tunnel, and five planned additional inner city stations will certainly help. Will it be enough?

There is an alternative/supplementary solution though

Only 22% of Melton’s locally-resident workforce also works in Melton (employment self-containment). And the number of jobs in Melton would technically only be enough for 41% of those locally-resident workers (employment self-sufficiency), even if they wanted to work locally. Specifically, there are almost 20,000 more locally-resident workers in transport, manufacturing, health care, construction and retail trade alone than there are local jobs in those sectors.

Industry of Employment, Place of Usual Residence and Place of Work, City of Melton, 2016
Source: ABS, 2017

This reflects potential opportunities to recapture expenditure locally. A significant amount of the lost expenditure is no doubt linked to people spending most of their day working outside Melton. Basic retail offerings already exist locally, but even this could hold opportunities, given the level of out-commuting. And a strategy to develop greater employment opportunities in Melton (commercial and industrial, not just population-driven) could really retain more of Melton’s local residents, recapturing escape expenditure and easing pressure on local and metropolitan infrastructure – including the train line.

Just some other options include:

·         Higher density development closer to places of employment, both in outer and inner areas;

·         Greater housing development in middle-ring suburbs (significant apartment supply in Melbourne inner suburbs is about to come online) to improve affordability and reduce the appeal of outer suburbs; and

·         Facilitation of working from home and flexible work arrangements to ease pressure on peak period commutes, e.g. improved broadband and more Wi-Fi hotspots in outer areas.

Capacity constraints are an ongoing battle for major cities. But this is a unique situation for Melbourne where business as usual simply won’t cut it for much longer.

So additional train services are definitely needed. But they can only do so much.